The Phoenix Mercury (7‑4) hit the road this Sunday to take on the Las Vegas Aces (5‑4) in the Commissioner’s Cup, a duel that now carries even more weight given pending key player health questions on both sides. Both teams enter off recent wins, but it’s the health of star players, A’ja Wilson for Las Vegas and Kahleah Copper for Phoenix, that could swing this contest. Here, we will break down this Western Conference matchup and give you our Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces prediction.
Our Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Pick
- Spread: Mercury -2.5
- Total: Over 163.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury @ Las Vegas Aces
- Date & Time: Sunday, June 15, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, NV
- Broadcast: WNBA League
| Bet Type | Line |
|---|---|
| Spread | Mercury –2.5 |
| Moneyline | Aces +124, Mercury -152 |
| Total | 163.5 |
Key Storylines
- A’ja Wilson’s status: Entered concussion protocol Vegas’ game on Wednesday and will miss Sunday’s game. Wilson was out for the Aces on Friday, with the Aces needing a late comeback to beat the Dallas Wings.
- Kahleah Copper’s return: Copper is expected to return ahead of schedule after knee arthroscopy. Last season, she averaged 21.1 PPG and her return should be a major lift for Phoenix’s offense.
- Mercury defense: Alyssa Thomas has returned recently, delivering a boost in rebounding, hustle plays, and interior resistance. That should come in handy with Wilson out for Vegas.
- Aces resilience: Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd will need to produce extra from the perimeter to make up for Wilson’s absence, something they did just well enough against the Wings.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- This is the first meeting between these teams in 2025, and Loyd’s first game against Phoenix as a member of the Aces.
- Last five: Both teams are 3-2 in their last five games and both won their most recent outings, both against the Wings.
- Spread trends: Aces are 3‑6 ATS this season, while the Mercury are 6-5 ATS.
- Total trends: Overs are 6-3 in Aces games so far this year, while totals have gone 5-5-1 for Phoenix.
- Home/Road splits: the Aces are strong at home with a 3-1 home record, while the Mercury are 1-2 on the road.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Offensive efficiency: Phoenix shoudl improve significantly with Copper’s return, though it will be interesting to see how she plays with two new teammates in Thomas and Satou Sabally for the first time.
- Defensive IQ: Mercury defense ranks fourth in defensive rating, while the Aces rank ninth in that department.
- Game tempo: Aces favor transition scoring, as their pace ranks second-fastest in the league behind the Liberty this year.
- Potential Mismatch: Without Wilson patrolling the paint, Phoenix’s interior defense could contain Las Vegas’s bench scoring.
Phoenix Mercury vs Las Vegas Aces Model Projection
Score Projection: Phoenix 88 – Las Vegas 83
Win Probability: Phoenix 55%, Las Vegas 45%
Final Thoughts
The Aces have not been as good this season as they have been the last three years. With Wilson out for this game, we expect them to struggle even more, especially after a game where they nearly lost outright at home to one of the worst teams in the W without her on the court. Expect the Mercury to see a bump on offense with Copper back out there, while the duo of Sabally and Thomas will continue to be influential in a Mercury win.
