On Saturday, June 14, 2025, the Indiana Fever host the undefeated New York Liberty in what could be a key Commissioner’s Cup clash. New York enters at 9‑0, dominating both ends of the floor and looking to further tighten their grip on the Eastern Conference standings. Meanwhile, Indiana sits at 4‑5 and is bolstered by the return of star guard Caitlin Clark, who missed the last few games due to a quad injury. Continue reading to get our New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever prediction for Saturday.
Our New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever Pick
Spread: Liberty –5
Total: Under 171.5
Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: New York Liberty @ Indiana Fever
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 14, 2025, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
- Broadcast: ABC, ESPN+
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| NYL –5 | NYL –218 / IND +180 | 171.5 |
Key Storylines
- Liberty’s streak: New York has rolled through its first nine games, boasting a massive +19.0 average margin of victory, behind league‑leading offense and defense, and balance throughout the rotation.
- Clark returns: Indiana’s Caitlin Clark, who averaged around 19.0 points, 9.3 assists, and 6 rebounds per game before the injury, is set to play for the first time in five games.
- Fever’s form: Indiana went 2‑3 without Clark. Sophie Cunningham is also expected to return, while DeWanna Bonner is listed as a game-time decision.
- Commissioner’s Cup implications: This game impacts Commissioner’s Cup standings. New York could take firm control of the East with a win.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Season Series: Liberty won the first meeting between these teams this season, a 90‑88 thriller on May 24.
- ATS: The Liberty enter at 6‑3 this season, Fever are 5-4 ATS.
- O/U: Liberty 4-5, Fever 3‑6.
- Indiana is just 2-3 at home this season.
Advanced Metrics & Trends
New York ranks first in both offensive and defensive rating so far this season. Their pace is the fastest in the W so far this year, while their execution is elite. Indiana plays a step slower and has struggled with spacing and turnovers without Clark. With her back in the lineup, the Fever’s transition game improves, but they’ll still face challenges handling New York’s pressure. The Liberty’s length, perimeter shooting, and deep bench could create multiple mismatches.
New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever Model Prediction
Score Projection: Liberty 90 – Fever 84
Win Probability: Liberty 78%, Fever 22%
Final Thoughts
New York has shown no signs of slowing down and enters this game firing on all cylinders. Indiana gets a boost from Clark’s return, but their ing cast remains inconsistent. With Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, and Natasha Cloud contributing at a high level, expect the Liberty to win whether or not Jonquel Jones is able to play. Back New York to cover and for the total to stay under in a game that could tell us a lot about Clark’s physical state.
