Heavyweights Serghei Spivac and Waldo Cortes-Acosta meet in the prelims of UFC 316 this Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. With both men ranked inside the division’s top 15 and keen to break into true contender status, the matchup promises a styles contrast, with Spivac’s top-shelf grappling against the Dominican puncher’s volume boxing. Continue reading to get my Serghei Spivac vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta prediction.
Serghei Spivac vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta Preview
Spivac, 30, enters with a 17-5 record and owns the best takedown accuracy rate in heavyweight history at 65.1%, landing 28 total takedowns in the Octagon. Of his 17 wins, 15 have come inside the distance, and the Moldovan has collected three Performance bonuses along the way. His recent form is mixed. A first-round armbar of Marcin Tybura last August was followed by a first-round TKO defeat to Jailton Almeida in January.
Cortes-Acosta, 33, rides a four-fight UFC win streak to a 13-1 record. The 6’4″ boxer nicknamed “Salsa Boy” has leaned on output rather than single-shot power in the big-glove era, averaging more than 110 significant strikes landed in three of his last four bouts. His most recent breakthrough came in March when he stopped Ryan Spann with a left hook-ground-and-pound combination in round 2.
Betting Insights
Sportsbooks have painted Spivac as a narrow favorite in the –150 range with Cortes-Acosta sitting at +125. Expect volatility, as Spivac backers will cite his 88% finish rate and elite top control, while Cortes-Acosta ers point to his strong record against UFC veterans and far higher striking volume.
Total rounds opened at 2.5 with the under shaded to –150, reflecting the belief that Spivac’s ground game or Cortes-Acosta’s hands can end matters before the horn. Prop investors should note that Spivac has not seen round 3 in his last 7 outings. Cortes-Acosta, however, has heard the judges in 5 of his 7 UFC appearances, so a decision by the Dominican sits in the +600 region while a Spivac submission hovers near +250.
Bettors can get extra value when betting on Spivac vs Cortes-Acosta by claiming our BetMGM bonus code. Just click the Claim Bonus button on this page and sign up with the code ATSBONUS to get their first bet offer, good for up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet doesn’t win.
Serghei Spivac vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction
The path for each man is crystal clear. Spivac needs early clinches, trips, and mat control. From half guard, he is adept at trapping an arm and sliding into arm-triangle territory. If he secures top position even once in the opening round, Cortes-Acosta could spend precious energy surviving. Conversely, Cortes-Acosta must command the center, pump the jab, and punish Spivac’s entries with short hooks.
Expect the Dominican to enjoy success in the first 90 seconds before Spivac closes the distance. The Moldovan’s chain-wrestling, fueled by inside-trip and outside-leg sweeps, should produce top control by the midway point of round 1. Cortes-Acosta’s defensive grappling has improved, yet he has not faced a heavyweight who keeps positional pressure like “Polar Bear.” Look for Spivac to move to mount or side control early in round 2, isolate an arm during a scramble, and finish with a belly-down armbar.
Official pick: Spivac by submission, round 2. A play on Spivac inside the distance at plus money or a stab at the submission prop in the +250 neighborhood offers value, while under 2.5 rounds is worth inclusion in parlays.
