The UFC Fight Night on March 22, 2025, at London’s O2 Arena features a compelling light heavyweight co-main event between former champion Jan Błachowicz and rising contender Carlos Ulberg. This bout presents a classic clash of veteran experience against youthful momentum, with significant implications for the division’s title landscape.
Jan Blachowicz vs Carlos Ulberg Preview
Jan Błachowicz, at 42, boasts a storied career in mixed martial arts. With a professional record of 29 wins, 10 losses, and 1 draw, Błachowicz has faced elite competition and held the UFC light heavyweight title. Standing 6’2″ with a 78-inch reach, he employs an orthodox stance. His striking metrics include landing 3.41 significant strikes per minute with a 50% accuracy rate, while absorbing 2.91 strikes per minute with a 53% defense rate. On the ground, he averages 1.09 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 50% success rate and defends 68% of takedown attempts against him.
Notable victories in Błachowicz’s career include wins over Israel Adesanya, Dominick Reyes, and Luke Rockhold. However, his recent form has been inconsistent, with only two wins in his last five outings, alongside two losses and a draw. His last appearance was a split-decision loss to Alex Pereira in 2023, and he has been sidelined since, partly due to shoulder surgeries.
Carlos Ulberg, known as “Black Jag,” is a 29-year-old fighter rapidly ascending the light heavyweight ranks. Holding a professional MMA record of 12 wins and 1 loss, Ulberg stands 6’4″ with a 77-inch reach and fights from an orthodox stance. His striking statistics are impressive, landing 7.20 significant strikes per minute with a 56% accuracy rate, though he absorbs 4.27 strikes per minute with a 50% defense rate. While primarily a striker, Ulberg averages 0.72 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 75% success rate and boasts an 83% takedown defense.
Ulberg is currently on a seven-fight win streak, with his most recent victory being a unanimous decision over Volkan Oezdemir in late 2024. A former kickboxing standout with a 19-2 record before transitioning to MMA in 2019, Ulberg’s striking prowess has been a key factor in his rapid rise within the division.
Betting Insights
As of the latest odds, Carlos Ulberg is favored to win, with odds of -278 at DraftKings Sportsbook. This implies that bettors would need to wager $278 to win $100 on Ulberg. Conversely, Jan Błachowicz is the underdog, with odds of +225, indicating that a $100 bet on Błachowicz would yield $225 if he secures the victory.
The betting lines reflect the fighters’ current trajectories: Ulberg’s impressive win streak and recent activity contrast with Błachowicz’s recent inconsistencies and time away from competition.
Jan Blachowicz vs Carlos Ulberg Prediction
Under 2.5 Rounds (+110)
220K Gold Coins & 10 FREE Sweeps Coins
- We expect a knockout win for Ulberg in this matchup within the first 2.5 rounds.
- Blachowicz’s time away from competition will not help him in this matchup with a red-hot Ulberg.
This matchup presents intriguing dynamics. Błachowicz’s experience and tactical approach could pose challenges for Ulberg, who, despite his striking prowess, has yet to face an opponent of Błachowicz’s caliber. Błachowicz’s ability to mix striking with grappling could disrupt Ulberg’s rhythm and test his takedown defense.
However, factors such as Błachowicz’s age, recent inactivity, and recovery from shoulder surgeries cannot be overlooked. At 42, returning from a significant layoff and medical procedures may impact his performance, particularly against a younger, active, and dynamic striker like Ulberg.
Ulberg’s high striking output and accuracy, coupled with his reach and height advantages, suggest he can dictate the fight’s pace and range. If he maintains distance, utilizes his jab effectively, and defends potential takedowns, Ulberg could outpoint Błachowicz or even secure a stoppage.
Considering these elements, the prediction leans toward Carlos Ulberg emerging victorious. His momentum, striking volume, and the potential ring rust affecting Błachowicz point toward a win for the “Black Jag,” possibly by TKO.
