Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Pick – 6/13/2025

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on June 13, 2025, both teams come in with solid records of 39-29 and 38-30, respectively. This interleague matchup marks the opening game of their series and could have implications as both teams vie for playoff positioning. The Phillies currently sit in a competitive position, while the Blue Jays are also in the thick of the race.

On the mound, the Phillies are set to start Ranger Suarez, who has enjoyed an impressive season with a 4-1 record and an excellent ERA of 2.70 through 7 starts. Suarez's power rankings place him as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he has been one of the more effective arms. However, his 3.47 xFIP indicates he may have experienced some good fortune, meaning regression could be on the horizon. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings today but will need to improve on allowing an average of 6.0 hits.

Kevin Gausman will take the ball for the Blue Jays, holding a 5-4 record and a solid 3.87 ERA. Gausman is considered an average pitcher according to the projections, and while he offers a respectable strikeout rate, he also allows a concerning amount of hits, projected at 5.9 today.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets are leaning towards a close contest, reflected in the Phillies' moneyline of -130. They may have the edge with a slightly better batting average ranking at 9th in MLB, compared to the Blue Jays' 5th ranking. As this series unfolds, expect a competitive game with both teams looking to gain an early advantage.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to the average hurler, Kevin Gausman has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 4.9 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Davis Schneider is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Toronto Blue Jays have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Addison Barger, Davis Schneider, Jonatan Clase).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Ranger Suarez has utilized his off-speed and breaking pitches 6.7% more often this season (55.8%) than he did last year (49.1%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Philadelphia's 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in Major League Baseball: #10 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 44 games (+9.75 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.70 Units / 26% ROI)
• Davis Schneider has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+6.85 Units / 98% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.46, Philadelphia Phillies 4.66

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
  • Ranger Suarez - Phillies

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