Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets Prediction – 6/14/2025

On June 14, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Citi Field in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Mets, boasting a strong 45-25 record, are currently enjoying a solid season, while the Rays sit at 37-32, performing above average. The Mets have been particularly impressive at home, and they will look to bounce back from their loss to the Rays yesterday.

As for the pitching matchup, Tylor Megill is projected to take the mound for the Mets. With a Power Ranking placing him as the 43rd best starting pitcher in MLB, Megill has had an up-and-down year with a 5-4 record and a 3.76 ERA. However, his 3.16 FIP suggests he has been unlucky and may improve moving forward. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings today, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs and striking out 6.5 batters, which indicates he could be in for a solid outing.

On the other side, Drew Rasmussen, ranked 19th in MLB, has been exceptional with a 2.22 ERA. However, his projections indicate he may struggle today, as he’s expected to pitch only 5.0 innings while allowing 2.0 earned runs and striking out just 4.4 batters. This could give the Mets' powerful offense, ranked 5th overall and hitting 89 home runs this season, a chance to capitalize on Rasmussen's potential weaknesses.

Given the Mets' strong offensive capabilities and the projections favoring Megill's potential bounce-back, they may find themselves exceeding the low implied team total of 3.70 runs set by the betting markets. Meanwhile, the Rays, despite their average offensive ranking, will need to bring their A-game to keep pace in this matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Drew Rasmussen has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 13.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Yandy Diaz usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Tylor Megill.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Tylor Megill has used his non-fastballs 5.8% less often this season (37.9%) than he did last year (43.7%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Jeff McNeil has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 68 games (+10.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.65 Units / 55% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.7, New York Mets 3.77

• Date: June 14, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays
  • Tylor Megill - Mets

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.