Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 6/11/2025

On June 11, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park in what promises to be an exciting matchup in the American League East. The Red Sox, with a record of 33-36, are struggling this season, while the Rays currently sit at 36-31, showcasing a stronger performance overall. In their last game, the Red Sox got a win over the Rays, giving them momentum heading into this contest.

Projected starters Walker Buehler and Zack Littell are both right-handed pitchers, but they bring contrasting performances to the mound. Buehler, ranked as the 166th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has a 4-4 record this year with a troubling 5.18 ERA. However, his higher xFIP of 4.12 suggests he’s experienced some bad luck, indicating potential for improvement. He’s expected to pitch approximately 5.5 innings while allowing around 2.9 earned runs, though his tendency to give up 5.7 hits and 1.6 walks could be problematic.

On the other hand, Zack Littell, despite being a below-average pitcher, has a solid 6-5 record and a respectable 3.68 ERA. His projections suggest he will pitch around 5.3 innings with a 3.3 earned run average. Although he has a low strikeout rate of 16.3% and may struggle against the Red Sox's high-strikeout offense, his control allows him to limit walks (3.4 BB%).

The Red Sox offense ranks 6th in MLB this season, excelling in batting average and home runs, while the Rays sit at 14th. With Boston’s lineup capable of explosive performances, they might leverage Littell’s weaknesses to bounce back from their recent loss. Given the current odds, which favor a fairly even matchup with a high total of 10.0 runs, bettors should keep an eye on how these trends unfold in this critical game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Given that flyball hitters hold a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Zack Littell and his 36.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in this matchup being matched up with 2 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Boston's #3-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Jake Mangum, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay has performed as the #29 team in the majors when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (13.6% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Walker Buehler's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (59.9% compared to 54.7% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Boston Red Sox' bullpen projects as the 5th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+5.96 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 21 away games (+9.55 Units / 34% ROI)
• Jake Mangum has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.35 Units / 41% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.93, Boston Red Sox 5.23

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Walker Buehler - Red Sox

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