San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 6/8/2025

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the San Diego Padres on June 8, 2025, in what promises to be an intriguing matchup, especially following the Brewers' hard-fought 4-3 victory over the Padres in their last contest. The Brewers, currently sitting at 35-30, find themselves in a competitive National League landscape, while the Padres hold a slightly better record at 36-27, making this series essential for both teams as they jockey for position.

Starting for the Brewers is Aaron Civale, who has struggled this season with a 5.19 ERA, ranking him among the lower tier of pitchers in MLB. Despite this, Civale's 4.61 SIERA indicates he might be due for some positive regression. He will face off against Ryan Bergert, a right-handed pitcher for the Padres, who has posted an impressive 2.00 ERA in his limited starts. However, projections suggest Bergert is likely to regress, as his 5.58 xFIP hints at some good fortune thus far.

Offensively, the Brewers have been underwhelming, ranking 23rd in MLB. They have managed to stay competitive due to their speed on the basepaths, ranking 2nd in stolen bases. In contrast, the Padres' offense is slightly better, sitting at 19th, but they struggle with power, ranking 25th in home runs.

Given the Brewers' slight edge in the standings and their recent victory, they enter this game as betting favorites with a moneyline of -155. The projections indicate they could score around 4.39 runs, while the Padres are projected for only 3.61 runs. With Civale needing to turn the tide on his season, this game could be pivotal for both pitchers and their respective teams moving forward.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Out of all the teams today, the worst infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 87.9-mph average last season has fallen off to 85.2-mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Tallying 81.4 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Aaron Civale ranks in the 21st percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball batters like Christian Yelich tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Bergert.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Milwaukee Brewers (20.1 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy group of batters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+11.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+9.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 20 games at home (+8.65 Units / 43% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.6, Milwaukee Brewers 4.77

• Date: June 8, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Bergert - Padres
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers

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