Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 6/13/2025

The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates face off again on June 13, 2025, at Wrigley Field in a crucial National League Central matchup. The Cubs, sitting at 42-27, are enjoying a strong season, while the Pirates struggle at 28-42. In their previous encounter, the Cubs emerged victorious, but they will need to maintain their momentum against a familiar foe.

Cubs’ pitcher Cade Horton is projected to start, boasting a solid 3-1 record this year but with a higher-than-average ERA of 4.11. Horton’s 4.7 innings pitched projection indicates potential for early exits, which could put additional pressure on a Cubs bullpen ranked 25th in MLB. Conversely, Paul Skenes of the Pirates is the elite starter of the matchup, currently holding the 2nd rank in MLB. With a 4-6 record and an impressive ERA of 1.88, Skenes is positioned to neutralize the potent Cubs offense that ranks 4th in MLB.

While the Cubs are a high-power offense, having hit 96 home runs this season, they may face challenges against Skenes, who is known for inducing ground balls. Additionally, the Cubs’ ability to draw walks may be curtailed by Skenes’ exceptional control, which could give the Pirates an edge in this pitching duel.

The low Game Total of 7.0 runs hints at a potentially tight contest. The Cubs' moneyline sits at -110, reflecting the betting market's view of a closely matched game, suggesting that while the Cubs have performed well, the likelihood of a decisive victory is not guaranteed. This clash promises to be a battle of strengths and weaknesses, as the Cubs aim to capitalize on their offensive capabilities while Skenes looks to assert his dominance on the mound.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes's fastball velocity has fallen 1.5 mph this season (97.4 mph) below where it was last season (98.9 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball bats like Isiah Kiner-Falefa tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Cade Horton.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Cade Horton is an extreme flyball pitcher (36% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #22 HR venue among all major league parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Michael Busch has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (79% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Kyle Tucker pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 67 games (+11.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+14.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 70% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.26, Chicago Cubs 3.65

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Cade Horton - Cubs

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