Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 6/12/2025

As the Chicago Cubs face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 12, 2025, the stakes are heightened in this National League Central matchup. The Cubs currently sit 14 games over .500 with a record of 41-27, showcasing a strong season, while the Pirates struggle significantly at 28-41. This game serves as the first in their series, and the Cubs are eager to build on their momentum.

The Cubs enter this series with their ranking as the 4th best offense in MLB, underpinned by a 3rd best team batting average and 5th best home run total. Conversely, the Pirates are ranked a dismal 27th in MLB for offense and 29th in home runs this season, which underscores the challenge they face.

On the mound, the Cubs are projected to start Jameson Taillon, who holds a solid 3.54 ERA this season, backed by an average projection of 5.7 innings pitched and 2.3 earned runs allowed. While his advanced stats suggest he might have been a bit lucky, he faces a Pirates offense that strikes out frequently—ranking 6th in MLB. This gives Taillon an edge, especially considering that he is a low-strikeout pitcher.

The Pirates will counter with Andrew Heaney, whose impressive 3.24 ERA belies his status as one of the least productive pitchers in MLB by overall metrics. Heaney's projected performance, which includes a high walk rate and a concerning 4.9 hits allowed, could prove detrimental against a potent Cubs lineup.

With the Cubs favored at -200, there is strong potential for them to capitalize on their offensive advantages and Taillon's competitive edge on the mound, making this matchup critical for their continued success this season.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Andrew Heaney is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #22 HR venue in the majors in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Oneil Cruz has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 97.5-mph average to last year's 95.3-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon's cut-fastball percentage has dropped by 12.3% from last season to this one (25% to 12.7%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Extreme flyball bats like Justin Turner are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Heaney.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kyle Tucker pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB's 5th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 61 games (+6.72 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+10.75 Units / 24% ROI)
• Jameson Taillon has hit the Earned Runs Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.50 Units / 36% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.8, Chicago Cubs 4.23

• Date: June 12, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Pirates
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs

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