New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 6/13/2025

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the New York Yankees on June 13, 2025, at Fenway Park, the stakes are high for both teams in this American League East matchup. The Red Sox currently sit at 34-36, having had an average season thus far, while the Yankees boast a strong record of 42-25, making them one of the top contenders in the league. Both teams are coming off a recent game, with the Yankees looking to build momentum after a solid win.

On the mound, the Red Sox are set to start Garrett Crochet, who has been a standout performer this season, ranking as the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. Crochet's impressive 2.35 ERA indicates his effectiveness, although his peripheral stats suggest he might have been a bit lucky. He projects to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs and striking out 7.6 batters, showcasing his ability to limit damage. However, he will need to be cautious against a Yankees offense that ranks 1st in MLB, with a league-leading 108 home runs.

The Yankees will counter with Ryan Yarbrough, who has had a below-average season, reflected in his 4.17 ERA. Yarbrough's projections indicate he may struggle, as he is expected to allow 2.8 earned runs over 5.1 innings. Given that both pitchers are left-handed, the matchup could lean in favor of the Red Sox, especially considering their offense ranks 6th in MLB and has been productive lately.

With the Red Sox favored at -140, the projections suggest a strong chance for them to capitalize on their home-field advantage against the Yankees, who are underdogs at +120. As both teams vie for an important win, fans can expect an exciting contest filled with potential fireworks at the plate.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Because of his large platoon split, Ryan Yarbrough will have a disadvantage matching up with 7 bats in the projected offense who bat from the opposite side in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Ben Rice has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.7-mph average to last year's 90-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The underlying talent of the New York Yankees projected lineup today (.335 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .347 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't ing for the lower quality of this offense.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Garrett Crochet's fastball velocity has decreased 1.7 mph this year (95.4 mph) below where it was last year (97.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme groundball batters like Romy Gonzalez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Yarbrough.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Boston's 90.7-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the league: #2 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+4.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games (+10.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Kristian Campbell has hit the Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.45 Units / 41% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Yankees 4.19, Boston Red Sox 4.74

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Yarbrough - Yankees
  • Garrett Crochet - Red Sox

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