Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction – 6/13/2025

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on June 13, 2025, both teams find themselves in the thick of competition this season, with the Astros currently sitting at 38-30 and the Twins at 36-32. The Astros have been solid, while the Twins are enjoying an above-average campaign. In their last outing, the Astros showcased their pitching strength with a 4-3 win over the White Sox, adding to the momentum as they head into this matchup.

Colton Gordon takes the mound for the Astros, looking to improve on his mixed start to the season. With a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 5.11, Gordon ranks as the 163rd best starting pitcher in the league according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, he possesses a 3.28 xFIP, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky and may have room for improvement. He projects to pitch about 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs while striking out 3.8 batters, which is below par.

On the other side, Chris Paddack takes the ball for the Twins. His 2-5 record and a solid 3.53 ERA reflect a decent performance this year, although his xFIP of 4.49 indicates he has benefited from some good fortune. Paddack's projected 5.4 innings pitched is average, but he too struggles with strikeouts, projecting only 4.2 strikeouts.

Offensively, the Astros rank 16th in the league, which is average, while the Twins sit slightly ahead at 14th. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, indicating a competitive matchup. With both teams having solid bullpens—ranked 6th and 10th respectively—the stage is set for a closely contested game. The projections lean slightly toward the Astros, providing them an edge in this pivotal series opener.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Chris Paddack (33.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 3 GB hitters in Houston's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Willi Castro has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 8.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Byron Buxton pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

With 9 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Colton Gordon will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Mauricio Dubon's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 84.5-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 78.2-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Today’s version of the Astros projected offense is weaker than usual, as their .312 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .324 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't ing for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 68 games (+9.40 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• Mauricio Dubon has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.55 Units / 109% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Minnesota Twins 5.06, Houston Astros 4.44

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Paddack - Twins
  • Colton Gordon - Astros

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