Cincinnati Reds vs Detroit Tigers Pick – 6/13/2025

On June 13, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Cincinnati Reds at Comerica Park in an Interleague matchup. Both teams are approaching the season's midpoint, with the Tigers enjoying a strong 45-25 record, making them one of the top contenders. In contrast, the Reds sit slightly above .500 at 35-34, reflecting an average season.

In their most recent outing, the Tigers are coming off an impressive victory where their offense clicked, underscoring their status as the 8th best unit in MLB. However, they'll face a challenge against the Reds, who have the 12th best offense, though their ability to put runs on the board remains inconsistent.

Projected starters Keider Montero for the Tigers and Nick Martinez for the Reds offer an intriguing pitching showdown. Montero, currently ranked #299 among MLB starters, has a less-than-stellar 4.30 ERA but carries a 2-1 record over nine starts. His pitching projections suggest he could struggle, allowing 2.8 earned runs with a concerning average of 5.2 hits and 1.7 walks per game. On the other hand, Martinez, who ranks #81, boasts a solid 3.70 ERA and a more favorable win-loss record of 4-6 over 13 starts. The projections indicate he could allow 2.5 earned runs while being slightly more effective than Montero.

Betting markets reflect a close matchup, with the Tigers sitting at -135 and the Reds at +115. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, which is considered average. Given the statistical edge in both pitching and offensive rankings, the Tigers appear to have the upper hand, despite the close odds.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Grading out in the 19th percentile, Nick Martinez compiled an 8.5% Swinging Strike percentage this year.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Elly De La Cruz has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 97.2-mph in the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Matt McLain hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Keider Montero is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #23 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Bats such as Javier Baez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Nick Martinez who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Detroit Tigers have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Dillon Dingler).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 36 of their last 61 games (+13.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 59 games (+9.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 4.69, Detroit Tigers 4.19

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nick Martinez - Reds
  • Keider Montero - Tigers

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