Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 6/11/2025

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to face the Atlanta Braves on June 11, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Brewers currently boast a record of 36-32, showing an above-average performance this season, while the Braves are struggling at 28-38, marking a disappointing campaign.

In their last outing, the Braves faced the Brewers and suffered a tough loss, putting pressure on them as they look to turn things around. The Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chad Patrick, whose 2.84 ERA is impressive, despite a below-average ranking as the 148th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, advanced metrics suggest he could be due for a regression, as his 4.22 xFIP indicates he may have experienced some good fortune thus far.

On the other side, Atlanta will counter with Spencer Schwellenbach, an elite right-handed pitcher ranked 15th in MLB. Schwellenbach's 3.24 ERA reflects his solid capabilities, and he possesses the potential to dominate against a Milwaukee offense that ranks a dismal 24th in MLB, particularly when it comes to home runs and batting average.

While the Brewers' offense is struggling, they do rank 2nd in MLB for stolen bases, which could create opportunities, especially with a low implied team total of 3.73 runs for this matchup. The Braves, with a stronger average offense, have a higher implied total of 4.27 runs, but their 26th-ranked stolen bases could limit their scoring potential.

Given these factors and the Braves' recent struggles, Milwaukee may have an edge to capitalize on Schwellenbach's elite performance against their lackluster offense, making them a worthwhile consideration for bettors looking to ride the momentum.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Spencer Schwellenbach's 96.4-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 95th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme flyball bats like Ozzie Albies tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Chad Patrick.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Atlanta Braves hitters as a unit rank near the top of the majors this year (5th-) as it relates to their 89.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Given that groundball pitchers are hit hardest by flyball hitters, Chad Patrick (39.4% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Atlanta's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

In the past two weeks' worth of games, Brice Turang's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

William Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 64 games (+15.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 64 games (+9.80 Units / 14% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.85 Units / 66% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.94, Milwaukee Brewers 3.78

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers

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