The Kentucky Derby is arguably the most popular horse race in the United States each year. It is the first leg of the Triple Crown, and potentially the launching point for any Triple Crown winning campaign. Here, we take a look at the odds to win this year’s Kentucky Derby, along with some information that is worth keeping in mind before you place any wagers on the run for the roses.
2025 Kentucky Derby Odds & Preview
In this year’s Kentucky Derby, the return of renowned trainer Bob Baffert after a three-year suspension adds an extra layer of intrigue, as he aims for a record-breaking seventh Derby victory. Leading the pack is Journalism, the early favorite at 3-1 odds. Trained by Michael McCarthy, Journalism boasts a pedigree from Curlin and Nyquist and enters the Derby with four consecutive wins in graded stakes. His consistent performance and strong lineage make him a formidable contender.
Bob Baffert’s return brings two strong entries: Citizen Bull and Rodriguez. Citizen Bull, the 2024 Eclipse Award-winning two-year-old, has shown impressive speed, clocking six furlongs in 1:12.40 during recent workouts. However, drawing the No. 1 post position poses a challenge. Rodriguez, winner of the Wood Memorial, will be ridden by veteran jockey Mike Smith, who seeks to become the oldest jockey to win the Derby at 58.
Other notable contenders include:
- Sandman (6-1 odds): Trained by Mark Casse, Sandman delivered a career-best performance in the Arkansas Derby, showcasing his potential to compete at the highest level.
- Sovereignty (5-1 odds): With victories in the Fountain of Youth and Street Sense Stakes, Sovereignty has demonstrated both speed and stamina, making him a strong contender.
- Tiztastic (20-1 odds): Winner of the Louisiana Derby, Tiztastic has shown a powerful closing kick, which could be advantageous in a crowded field.
- Render Judgment (30-1 odds): Owned by the late country music star Toby Keith, Render Judgment’s participation fulfills Keith’s dream of having a horse in the Derby, adding an emotional element to the race.
Betting Insights
As betting enthusiasts analyze the Kentucky Derby odds, several factors come into play:
- Post Positions: Citizen Bull’s No. 1 draw is traditionally challenging, potentially impacting his performance despite his strong credentials.
- Trainer-Jockey Combinations: The reunion of Baffert and Smith with Rodriguez could prove fruitful, given their past success with Justify in 2018.
- International Entries: Horses like ire Daytona and Luxor Café bring international flair, though their adaptation to Churchill Downs remains a question mark.
- Long Shots: Horses like Final Gambit and American Promise, both at 30-1 odds, could offer value for bettors seeking potential upsets.
2025 Kentucky Derby Prediction
Considering the current form, pedigree, and race dynamics, the following predictions are made:
- Winner: Journalism – With a strong track record and favorable post position, Journalism is well-positioned to secure victory.
- Runner-Up: Rodriguez – Under the guidance of Baffert and Smith, Rodriguez has the experience and skill to challenge for the win.
- Third Place: Sandman – Building momentum from recent performances, Sandman could capitalize on any missteps by the favorites.
- Dark Horse: Tiztastic – If the pace is swift, Tiztastic’s closing ability could see him finish strongly.
As the Derby approaches, bettors should monitor final workouts and track conditions, as these factors can influence outcomes. With a mix of seasoned contenders and emerging talent, the 2025 Kentucky Derby promises to be a thrilling spectacle for racing enthusiasts and bettors.
Where Can I Bet On the Kentucky Derby?
There are plenty of places to place wagers on the Kentucky Derby, but we recommend FanDuel for wagering on horse racing. With FanDuel, players in most states where FanDuel Sportsbook is legal can place wagers right from their sportsbook app. In other states, bettors will need to the separate FanDuel Racing app. But in either case, deposits made to FanDuel Sportsbook can be used to place racing wagers, which is incredibly convenient.
To get started with FanDuel Sportsbook, simply click on the button above to sign up using our exclusive FanDuel Sportsbook bonus. That bonus can be used to help build your bankroll ahead of the Triple Crown season and the running of the Kentucky Derby.
Kentucky Derby Track Info
The Kentucky Derby is the second-longest race of the Triple Crown season, coming in at 1.25 miles. This is a quarter of a mile shorter than the Belmont Stakes and 1/16 of a mile longer than the Preakness. It is important to look at how each horse has performed at or around this specific distance when handicapping this race to get an idea of how they should perform on this particular stage.
It is also important to factor the anticipated weather into the expected outcome of this race. Ideal weather conditions could favor some horses, while bad weather could favor others, given that this race is run on dirt. Bettors have to be ready for all possibilities from a weather perspective and plan ahead for each of them.
Past Kentucky Derby Winners and Odds
The Kentucky Derby has been a launching point for many Triple Crown campaigns, as well as simply a crowning achievement for many horses that did not go onto win the crown. Below is a list of Kentucky Derby winners from 2000 on, some of which were true shocks at the time.
| Year | Kentucky Derby Winner | Final Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Mystik Dan | 18/1 |
| 2023 | Mage | 14/1 |
| 2022 | Rich Strike | 80/1 |
| 2021 | Medina Spirit | 12/1 |
| 2020 | Authentic | 8/1 |
| 2019 | Country House | 65/1 |
| 2018 | Justify | 5/2 |
| 2017 | Always Dreaming | 9/2 |
| 2016 | Nyquist | 2/1 |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | 5/2 |
| 2014 | California Chrome | 5/2 |
| 2013 | Orb | 5/1 |
| 2012 | I’ll Have Another | 15/1 |
| 2011 | Animal Kingdom | 20/1 |
| 2010 | Super Saver | 8/1 |
| 2009 | Mine That Bird | 50/1 |
| 2008 | Big Brown | 7/2 |
| 2007 | Street Sense | 9/2 |
| 2006 | Barbaro | 6/1 |
| 2005 | Giacomo | 50/1 |
| 2004 | Smarty Jones | 4/1 |
| 2003 | Funny Cide | 13/1 |
| 2002 | War Emblem | 41/2 |
| 2001 | Monarchos | 21/2 |
| 2000 | Fusaichi Pegasus | 9/5 |
Kentucky Derby Betting Strategy
The most important piece of Kentucky Derby betting strategy is to avoid flying blind when betting on this event. With this being the first leg of the Triple Crown, many more inexperienced horse racing bettors likely don’t know all that much about the horses competing in this race. Bettors should do everything they can to arm themselves with knowledge about all of the horses, even if it is appealing to just place some bets without any knowledge of the competition.
Bettors should also look at where each horse ends up starting from in this race to help inform their decisions. A horse that is favored to win this race could see their chances evaporate if they are in a bad position starting out, as they may not be able to create a path to get into space down the stretch. At least being aware of possibilities like that one will help bettors maximize their chances of winning when betting on this event.
