UConn -11 (-110) over San Diego State
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- UConn beat San Diego State by 17 points in last year’s national championship game and the Huskies have won both games in this year’s tournament by double-digits as well.
- UConn is one of the few teams with a better defense than SDSU, ranking 8th in defensive efficiency at Kenpom, while the Aztecs are 9th.
The San Diego State Aztecs will go head-to-head with the UConn Huskies in a rematch of last year's national championship game on March 28, 2024, at 7:39 pm ET. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, the Huskies are favored by 11 points in this Sweet 16 contest. The number one overall seed is off to a great start in this tournament, but San Diego State is coming off of a blowout win of their own, and will be out for revenge from last year's title tilt.
For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free NCAABB picks here.
For San Diego State to have any chance to win this San Diego State vs UConn matchup, they are going to need Jaedon LeDee to have another monster game. LeDee has been exceptional in this tournament so far, averaging 29 points per game and making 66.7% of his shots from the field. But for LeDee to have success in this game, he is going to need to overcome a UConn defense that is great at taking away the best player on the opposing side.
UConn made Boo Buie a non-factor in their second round matchup with the Northwestern Wildcats. The Huskies held Buie to just 2/15 shooting from the field, ending the collegiate career of Buie in a way that did not represent how good the Northwestern guard was throughout his time in Evanston. UConn is more than capable of putting LeDee through the same kind of night here, even if doing so is no easy task for any defense.
It is worth noting that this is a virtual home game for UConn, as the East Regional in this year’s NCAA Tournament is being held at TD Garden in Boston. That will mean a huge crowd of Huskies fans, with much less for a San Diego State team that is based thousands of miles away. As if things were not expected to be tough for the Aztecs already in this San Diego State vs UConn rematch, the geographical advantage for UConn is undeniable.
In this game, the best bet is to lay the points with UConn, even if the number is a big one. The Huskies have eight straight NCAA Tournament games by double-digits dating back to last year’s run to the national title. They should pick up a ninth straight win by that margin and cruise into the Elite Eight, where they will be favored against the winner of the matchup between the Illinois Fighting Illini and Iowa State Cyclones.
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NCAABB
San Diego State Aztecs
UConn Huskies
Team Stats Per Game
Advanced Game Stats
Offense/Defense
| SDST | Advanced Game Stats | UCONN |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2 | Pace | 65.7 |
| 106.1 | Off.Rate | 102.7 |
| .314 | FTr | .427 |
| .400 | 3PAr | .314 |
| .536 | TS% | .532 |
| 50.0 | TRB% | 45.3 |
| 51.3 | AST% | 42.3 |
| 11.5 | STL% | 7.3 |
| 18.7 | BLK% | 7.0 |
| .511 | eFG% | .482 |
| 14.2 | TOV% | 14.8 |
| 29.8 | ORB% | 26.2 |
| .209 | TF/FGA | .316 |
Defense/Offense
| SDST | Advanced Game Stats | UCONN |
|---|---|---|
| 66.2 | Pace | 65.7 |
| 95.3 | Off.Rate | 124.0 |
| .367 | FTr | .323 |
| .470 | 3PAr | .449 |
| .492 | TS% | .616 |
| 50.0 | TRB% | 54.7 |
| 50.5 | AST% | 68.2 |
| 8.8 | STL% | 8.6 |
| 8.4 | BLK% | 18.0 |
| .449 | eFG% | .583 |
| 17.1 | TOV% | 12.9 |
| 31.1 | ORB% | 34.0 |
| .257 | TF/FGA | .254 |
Betting Trends
| SDST | Betting Trends | UCONN |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 2-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-0-0 |
| 71.67 | Avg Score | 79.67 |
| 63.33 | Avg Opp Score | 55.67 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 2-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 3-0-0 |
| 1-2-0 | ATS W/L/P | 3-0-0 |
| 72.67 | Avg Score | 79.67 |
| 67.67 | Avg Opp Score | 55.67 |
| SDST | Betting Trends | UCONN |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 4-1-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-0-0 |
| 2-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 4-1-0 |
| 75 | Avg Score | 84.2 |
| 66.2 | Avg Opp Score | 63.4 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 3-2-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 5-0-0 |
| 2-3-0 | ATS W/L/P | 4-1-0 |
| 70.8 | Avg Score | 84.2 |
| 62.4 | Avg Opp Score | 63.4 |
| SDST | Betting Trends | UCONN |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | OVERALL | |
| 6-4-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 9-1-0 |
| 3-7-0 | ATS W/L/P | 8-2-0 |
| 71.8 | Avg Score | 80.4 |
| 64.5 | Avg Opp Score | 64.4 |
| AWAY | HOME | |
| 4-6-0 | Win/Loss/Tie | 10-0-0 |
| 3-7-0 | ATS W/L/P | 7-3-0 |
| 70.4 | Avg Score | 81.6 |
| 68 | Avg Opp Score | 61.2 |
